Academic & Policy Articles

“How Do Truckers Perceive and Respond to the Risks from Automation?” with Daniel W. Shoag and Stan Veuger, AEI Economic Perspectives, 2024-10. [pdf]

“Protectionism is Failing and Wrongheaded: An Evaluation of the Post-2017 Shift toward Trade Wars and Industrial Policy,” in Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue editors, Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism, The Aspen Institute, 2024. [pdf]

“American workers are doing great. They could be doing even better,” Economic Innovation Group, June 2024. [pdf]

“The Case for AI Optimism,” National Affairs, no. 60, Summer 2024. [pdf]

“The American Dream Is Alive and Well (and the Problem of US Inequality Greatly Exaggerated),” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, vol. 36, no. 2, Spring 2024. [published version]

“The Economics and Implications of Compliance with Minimum Wages,” with Jeffrey Clemens, VoxEU, Centre for Economic Policy Research, February 2024.

“Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Increase Unemployment? Evidence from Early State-Level Expirations,” with Harry J. Holzer and Glenn Hubbard, Economic Inquiry, vol. 62, no. 1, January 2024. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Employment and Labor Supply Responses to the Child Tax Credit Expansion: Theory and Evidence,” with Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 710, no. 1, 2023. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Do Higher Minimum Wages Decrease Union Membership in Minimum-Wage-Intensive Industries?” with Jeffrey Clemens, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 41, no. 4, October 2023. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“How Important are Minimum Wage Increases in Increasing the Wages of Minimum Wage Workers?” with Jeffrey Clemens, Contemporary Economic Policy, vol. 41, no. 4, October 2023. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Free Exchange,” in Michael Q. McShane and Christopher J. Scalia editors, Conservative Persuasions: An Introduction for College Students, AEI Press, 2023. [pdf]

“Understanding ‘Wage Theft’: Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases,” with Jeffrey Clemens, Labour Economics, vol. 79, December 2022. [published version]

“How Important Are Minimum Wage Increases in Increasing the Wages of Minimum Wage Workers?” with Jeffrey Clemens, Research Briefs in Economic Policy, no. 300, Cato Institute, August 2022.

“Have Wages Stagnated for Decades in the U.S.?” Obserwator Finansowy, June 2022. [published version]

“Does Measurement Error Explain the Increase in Subminimum Wage Payment Following Minimum Wage Increases?” with Jeffrey Clemens, Economics Letters, vol. 217, August 2022. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Economic Shocks and Clinging,” with Stan A. Veuger, Contemporary Economic Policy, vol. 40, no. 3, July 2022. [pre-publication pdf] [published version].

“Is there a labor shortage?” with Michael Horrigan, Misty Heggeness, and Kate Bahn, Business Economics, vol. 57, no. 1, January 2022. [pdf]

“An Argument Against the $15 Minimum Wage,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, vol. 40, no. 4, Autumn 2021. [pdf]

“The Recovery From The Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion,” with Jay C. Shambaugh, ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 695, 2021. [pdf]

“American Enterprise Institute Roundtable: Was Milton Friedman Right about Shareholder Capitalism,” with Clifford Asness, Glenn Hubbard, and Martin Lipton, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, vol. 33, no. 1, Winter 2021. [pdf]

“Employment Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit: Taking the Long View,” with Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach,” Tax Policy and the Economy, vol. 35, 2021. [pdf]

“Has the Paycheck Protection Program succeeded?” with Glenn Hubbard, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2020. [pdf]

“Understanding ‘Wage Theft’: Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases,” with Jeffrey Clemens, Research Briefs in Economic Policy, no. 230, Cato Institute, September 2020.

“Economists Tackle the Challenges of a Pandemic,” with Diane Swonk, Lisa D. Cook, et al., Business Economics, vol. 55, 2020.

“Strengthen the Post-Pandemic Economy,” in Yuval Levin editor, Governing Priorities, American Enterprise Institute, 2020. [pdf]

“Does Employment Respond Differently to Minimum Wage Increases in the Presence of Inflation Indexing?” with Peter Brummund, Journal of Human Resources, vol. 55, no. 3, 2020.  [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Building the Car While Driving It: Suggestions for Reforming the Paycheck Protection Program,” with R. Glenn Hubbard, American Enterprise Institute, April 2020. [pdf]

“The Paycheck Protection Program: An Introduction,” American Enterprise Institute, April 2020. [pdf]

“A Business Fiscal Response to a COVID-19 Recession,” with R. Glenn Hubbard, American Enterprise Institute, 20 March 2020. [pdf]

"Implications of Schedule Irregularity as a Minimum Wage Response Margin," with Jeffrey Clemens, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 27, no. 20, 2020. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“The Link Between Wages and Productivity Is Strong,” in Melissa S. Kearney and Amy Ganz editors, Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans, The Aspen Institute, 2019. [pdf]

“Fiscal Implications of Social Security-Financed Parental Leave,” with Alan D. Viard, Tax Notes, vol. 159, April 2018. [pdf]

“The Short-Run Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence from the American Community Survey,” with Jeffrey Clemens, Contemporary Economic Policy, vol. 36, no. 4, 2018. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“High School Experiences, the Gender Wage Gap, and the Selection of Occupation,” with Douglas A. Webber, Applied Economics, vol. 49, no. 49, 2017. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Do Minimum Wage Increases Influence Worker Health?” with Brady P. Horn and Johanna Catherine Maclean, Economic Inquiry, vol. 55, no. 4, 2017. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Do Volatile Firms Pay Volatile Earnings? Evidence From Linked Worker-Firm Data,” Applied Economics, vol. 49, no. 43, 2017. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Expect 25 Years of Rapid Change,” with Kevin A. Hassett, Monthly Labor Review, March 2016. [pdf]

“Dividends and Investment: Evidence of Heterogeneous Firm Behavior,” with Aparna Mathur, Nirupama S. Rao, and Stan A. Veuger, Public Finance Review, vol. 44, no. 6, 2016. [published version]

“Has the Affordable Care Act increased part-time employment?” with Aparna Mathur and Sita Nataraj Slavov, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 23, no. 3, 2016. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Getting Back to Work,” in Brink Lindsey editor, Reviving Economic Growth: Policy Proposals from 51 Leading Experts, Cato Institute Press, 2015. [Amazon] [pdf]

“Worksharing and Long-Term Unemployment,” with Kevin A. Hassett, in Jared Bernstein editor, Full Employment Project, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, April 2014. [pdf]

“A Jobs Agenda for the Right,” National Affairs, no. 18, winter 2014. [published version]

“Single-Sex Classrooms and Student Outcomes: Evidence from North Carolina,” Economics of Education Review, vol. 36, 2013. [pre-publication pdf] [published version]

“Six Long-Run Tax and Budget Realities,” with Alan D. Viard, Tax Notes, vol. 139, June 2013. [pdf]

“Should the Top Marginal Income Tax Rate Be 73 Percent?” with Aparna Mathur and Sita Slavov, Tax Notes, vol. 137, November 2012. [pdf]

“Job Loss and Effects on Firms and Workers,” with Kevin F. Hallock and Douglas Webber, in Cary Cooper, Alankrita Pandey, and James Quick editors, Downsizing: Is Less Still More? Cambridge University Press, 2012. [working paper version] [published version]

“How Payday Credit Access Affects Overdrafts and Other Outcomes,” with Donald P. Morgan and Ihab Seblani, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 44, no. 2-3, March-April 2012. [pdf]

Working Papers

“Does Wage Theft Vary by Demographic Group? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases,” with Jeffrey Clemens, NBER Working Paper Series, no. 31818, October 2023. [pdf]

“Why Do Labor Unions Advocate for Minimum Wage Increases?” with Jeffrey Clemens, IZA Discussion Paper Series, no. 16059, April 2023. [pdf]

“Does Policy Advocacy Generate Good PR? Evidence from Labor Unions and Minimum Wages,” with Jeffrey Clemens, IZA Discussion Paper Series, no. 16014, March 2023. [pdf]

“The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-Analysis Plan,” with Jeffrey Clemens, NBER Working Paper Series, no. 29264, September 2021. [pdf]

Reports

Reducing Intergenerational Poverty, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, 2023. [webpage] [pdf]

The COVID-19 Task Force Policy Translation Working Group, Social Insurance during the Pandemic: Successes, Shortcomings, and Policy Options for the Future, National Academy of Social Insurance, June 2023. [webpage] [pdf]

AEI-Brookings Working Group on Childhood in the United States, Rebalancing: Children First, American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution, February 2022. [webpage] [pdf]

Measuring Alternative Work Arrangements for Research and Policy, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The National Academies Press, 2020. [webpage] [pdf]

In Order That They Might Rest Their Arguments on Facts: The Vital Role of Government-Collected Data, with Nicholas Eberstadt, Ryan Nunn, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Economic Facts, The Hamilton Project and the American Enterprise Institute, March 2017. [pdf]

AEI-Brookings Working Group on Poverty and Opportunity, Opportunity, Responsibility, and Security: A Consensus Plan for Reducing Poverty and Restoring the American Dream, December 2015. [webpage] [pdf]

Download CV: Michael R. Strain